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Thu, 02 Jul 2015 11:33:36 GMT
- MBS Day Ahead: All Bets Off for NFP

Posted To: MBS Commentary

With markets closed tomorrow, NFP (the nonfarm payrolls component of the employment situation report) arrives a day early today, and despite all the focus on Europe, it's still important! Now, there's always some chance that a jobs report leaves us close to unchanged by the end of the day, but I'd be surprised to see that today. Reason being: we're entering the final approach to a probably Fed rate hike in September. Just yesterday, Vice-Chair Fischer reiterated that the Fed is in a hurry to hike, even before full employment and inflation targets have been reached, due to the lag in impact of monetary policy. Translation: the Fed doesn't want to be behind the curve when it comes time to level off at cruising altitude. It would follow logically then, that any strong showing...(read more)

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Wed, 01 Jul 2015 21:39:26 GMT
- MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Back to Defense Ahead of NFP

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The last two days were nice while they lasted , but today's trading levels are right back in line with most of last week. In other words, bonds sold off today. The weakness hit markets like a ton of bricks right at 5am. Draw your own conclusions, but this is when Europe's CPI reading came out in line with expectations. The last 3 readings of EU CPI have also been in line with forecasts or better, and each day has seen a significant sell-off. The implication is that markets are doing some mental math on the necessity for ongoing QE and tacitly determining that stable inflation in the Eurozone means that QE could be ended early. It's actually quite remarkable how well 2015's bounce coincides with improvements in CPI. All of the above was good enough for 10yr yields to sell-off...(read more)

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Wed, 01 Jul 2015 21:39:00 GMT
mortgage rates, mortgage rate forecast, lifetime lows, all-time lows, mortgage rate commentary, daily mortgage rate forecast - Mortgage Rates Rise Ahead of Big Jobs Report

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates gave up recently-enjoyed gains today. This brings them to the week's highest levels (and the 3rd highest in 2015) a day before the all-important Employment Situation Report. Also referred to as "the jobs report" or simply "nonfarm payrolls," this is the most important piece of economic data released each month in terms of potential to move interest rates. If job growth is stronger than expected, rates usually rise. The farther away the actual number is from forecasts, the more markets usually move. Tomorrow is no exception despite several other important considerations ahead. One consideration that's hard to miss these days is Greece. The country goes to a referendum this weekend in order to vote on 'something.' No one is abundantly clear on what that 'something' is, but the...(read more)

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