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Thu, 27 Aug 2015 20:44:17 GMT
- MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Mostly Put Their Foot Down

Posted To: MBS Commentary

After two days of relatively brutal selling, bond markets finally opted for much less brutal selling. In fact, 10yr yields were in positive territory as of the official 3pm ET closing time. They've since trickled back to slightly higher yields, but even then, only by about 1bp. MBS are in a similar boat with Fannie 3.0s down only 2 ticks and Fannie 3.5s down only 1 tick on the day. None of that is too shabby considering the previous 2 days combined for a 17bp increase in 10yr yields and a half point drop in MBS. Additionally, bonds were resilient in spite of a 47 point gain in the S&P. Early movement came courtesy of stronger-than-expected GDP . Bonds were at their weakest levels shortly thereafter, but found support there. Trading was sideways into the afternoon, but improved markedly...(read more)

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Thu, 27 Aug 2015 20:44:00 GMT
mortgage rates, mortgage rate forecast, lifetime lows, all-time lows, mortgage rate commentary, daily mortgage rate forecast - Mortgage Rate Losing Streak Loses Steam

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were just barely higher today, greatly decreasing the momentum in a now 3-day losing streak. The timing of these movements is important as it relates to Freddie Mac's widely disseminated mortgage rate report. Freddie's weekly rate report is gospel, and indeed it's very accurate given the limitations of its methodology. Sometimes those limitations come to the surface and create confusion. For instance, Freddie is reporting mortgage rates at the lowest levels since May. The catch is that Freddie's data never includes Thursday or Friday rate sheets, and rarely captures Wednesday movement. That matters because Thursday and Friday of last week were the actual 3-month lows ( as we discussed last week ). That means that this week's Freddie survey is being measured against rates that...(read more)

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Thu, 27 Aug 2015 15:29:45 GMT
mortgage rates, mortgage rate forecast, lifetime lows, all-time lows, mortgage rate commentary, daily mortgage rate forecast - MBS MID-DAY: Reasonably Resilient Despite Stock Market Gains

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Much has been made recently of the surprising lack of response on the part of bond markets to the massive sell-off in stocks. That shoe is now on the other foot as bond markets remain little-changed despite the S&P being up 37 points. While the day is still fairly young, this is a resilient showing for bond markets so far--especially in light of the stronger-than-expected GDP (+3.7 vs +3.2 forecast). There was definitely a reaction to the data at first, with bonds moving to the weakest levels of the day. But 10yr yields are trying to establish a supportive ceiling around 2.20. As long as yields don't go too much above that, today will end up marking the end of the nasty little correction back from Monday's lows. If the aforementioned ceiling ends up holding today, we shouldn't...(read more)

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