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Fri, 06 Mar 2015 17:32:47 GMT
- MBS MID-DAY: Jobs Report Crushes Bond Market's Spirit; Pain Trade For Dip-Buyers

Posted To: MBS Commentary

What is a dip-buyer? That's just a fancy term for an investor who has seen prices fall far enough to entice them to buy in the hopes of a bounce. It's like catching the proverbial falling knife. Sometimes it works out. Sometimes it doesn't. Today it didn't. There was longer term dip-buying taking place over the last few days with 2.15% seen as a supportive level in 10yr yields. Those buyers were quickly forced to liquidate after this morning's thunderous 295k print on NFP. The lack of more meaningful wage growth was completely overshadowed by the job creation. In general, the report seemed to catch market participants off guard. There was a lot of media hype about the weather taking a toll on today's numbers. Obviously, it didn't. After the first troop of dip-buyers...(read more)

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Fri, 06 Mar 2015 16:04:39 GMT
PHH, unemployment and rates - Jumbo News in Primary, Secondary and The Securitization Markets

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Daylight Savings commences for many parts of the U.S. dark and early Sunday morning. For many this means spring is around the corner, with improved weather and the nearing of the "home buying season" which kind of coincides with "kitten season", per my cat Myrtle. We need to get through March first, and I am hearing continued anecdotal murmurings of lender's February volume successes continuing into March. But is too much of a good thing bad? More specifically, fundings from those great January lock days should wrap up this month, and for some non-depository lenders the focus is on avoiding the expected warehouse strain and fluctuations in staffing needs. Personnel are working on clearing up suspended loans, and the usual investor culprits are being sworn at for dragging their feet on buying...(read more)

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Fri, 06 Mar 2015 12:34:05 GMT
PHH, unemployment and rates - MBS Day Ahead: Suddenly, NFP Matters Again. Maybe This Chart Explains Why

Posted To: MBS Commentary

For nearly a year, NFP hadn't mattered . That is to say, it ceased filling it's usual role as big-picture guidance giver. It was no longer setting the tone for entire months of trading, and in many cases, it's obvious fundamental suggestion ended up seeing the opposite trading response. The clear wrench in the works was--and possibly still is--Europe, both in terms of general economic malaise and QE expectations (now fulfilled). In that sense, disregarding strong NFP's throughout 2014 made great sense for the traders who were smart enough not to be swimming against the tide of Eurodrama. But then our own domestic heavy hitters started talking about their own potential counterpoints to the seemingly rosy picture painted by perennially strong payroll creation. And what's more...(read more)

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